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Rumson, Fair Haven, Sea Bright Real Estate Market Update

April 2023

Current Conditions

Colts Neck Real Estate Market Update April 2023

By the time you’re reading this it’s June already, normally the waining end of The Spring market. Despite the Fed increases the Federal Funds Rate again and mortgage rates drifting higher (currently 6.96% as of today, May, 20th, 2023) the seller’s market continues throughout the Peninsula, Monmouth County, and most of New Jersey. Inventory in most towns on the Peninsula currently sits at just between 1.5-3 months, still indicating a STRONG seller’s market. However, depending on your price range you’re either finding almost no homes available in the under $1m price range and more over-priced, under-renovated options in the higher price ranges. Well-priced homes up to $4m are still seeing multiple offers and bidding wars. Cash buyers are dominating all price ranges and currently choosing to close in cash and wait to do cash-out refinances once rates drop, whether later this year or in 2024.

Competition

Buying a home under $1.5m remains an extreme challenge for younger buyers. With cash buyers dominating multiple offer situations, mortgage buyers as a whole are forced to offer prices much higher than the recent sales and likely show funds to cover 10-15% over the asking price to cover any shortfall in appraisal, in order to win. We are seeing young buyer present with cash, often funded by parents or relatives, in order to be competitive in the market. After closing they are taking out a mortgage to pay back that gift.

Despite tech layoffs rising and a general consensus on economic slowdown, demand for homes here has not slowed since mid-January when buyers largely re-entered the buying market on the back of mortgage rate declines. The lack of supply will not be a problem solved quickly given the near non-existent new land to build on. If rates decline into the 5% range later this Summer, that may prompt more sellers sitting on equity but avoiding moving to incur a 7% rate on their new purchase, to list their homes and move.

Rumson

Very little new inventory is hitting the market in Rumson. Homes that are either over-priced or in need of work given their current price, or in poor locations are taking longer to sell and needing price reductions while correctly priced homes are getting tremendous activity and multiple offers, even into the $4m and $5m price range. Pricing is extremely important as the buyer demand at all price ranges is there, but buyers are extremely savvy and willing to pay for turn-key.

Fair Haven

Inventory has been extremely low in Fair Haven for nearly 3 years now, with many owners feeling locked into their current homes. Knowing their homes can sell quickly but not having options in town to move to PLUS the likelihood of incurring a much higher rate than their current mortgage rate, continues to keep new homes off the market. There have been a few listings over just the past week which we expect to be gobbled up by local builders and turned into spec homes over the next year. 

Sea Bright

The demand to live in Sea Bright is not slowing. With every new record sale, owners see an opportunity to cash in on the current “frothy” seller’s market. Waterfront homes in the Tradewinds community are leading the way with a recent sale over $4m and a newly listed property listed over $5.4m. The buyer makeup continues to be a mix of New Yorkers looking for beach homes or permanent residences with an easy commute due to the nearby SeaStreak ferry AND empty-nesters from elsewhere in Monmouth County looking to be closer to the water. Stay tuned for a spectacular water-view new construction home that we will be bringing to market in the next month, with expected completion in February 2024.

Forecast

We expect strong sales through early Summer, and depending on whether rates rise again or potentially fall before the end of the year, we could be looking at continued price stability to an even more frenzied seller’s market.

If you’re curious what your home is valued at, but aren’t serious about selling, sign up for our HomeBot alerts hereWhat’s My Home Worth

If you’d like us to stop by and provide you a full pricing analysis, set up a meeting here.  Arrange A Meeting With DJ

If you’d like to see what homes are currently for sale in Rumson, Fair Haven, & Sea Bright, click here.  Homes Currently For Sale


March 2023

Current Conditions

Rum:FH:SB Market Update March 2023The Spring market started very early this year. After rates dropped from their highs over 7% to the mid-5% range just after New Year’s, the market reignited. The Fall of 2022 was your chance to buy a home without NEEDING to offer over-asking price. You didn’t necessarily need to waive your appraisal and rights to inspections. Why?…because as rates nearly tripled with the span of 9 months, plenty of buyers were priced out of the homes they wanted to buy. Many others just felt the market had topped out and were going to wait for prices to come down. As we predicted, that didn’t happen. Any relief was temporary and in the form of reduced competition. Early 2023 has been a return in many ways to the frenzied pace of 2020-2021, but with a few distinct differences. As rates dropped back into the 5s after New Year’s, most of the buyers who had sidelined themselves in the Fall entered back into the buyer market. As rates again drifted to 7% we did not see those buyers exit the market again. They held course and kept buying. What was different this time? The sticker shock had worn off. Buyers now realized that 6-7% is the new “cost of doing business” and rates will drop again, like they did in January, and you’ll be able to refinance lower.

Competition

Buying a home under $1 million dollars so far this year is harder than it was during the peak of the COVID crisis. It’s routine to see more than 10-40 offers on properties, with the most aggressively priced and best conditioned homes selling 15% or more over asking price. The same thing is not occurring in the luxury market, indiscriminately. Inventory over $1 million is greater for sure. Case in point, at this time there are 28 homes on the market in Colts Neck, with 20 of them listed over $1 million. Days on market for the homes over $1 million is 94 compared to 65 for homes under $1 million. The reason isn’t that there are fewer buyers out there looking over $1 million. It’s that the homes that aren’t renovated are priced too high for their condition, and buyers have options now. Well renovated homes priced correctly are still selling at and over asking price, even if that asking price is over $3 million.

With multiple bank failures over the past 2 months and corporate layoffs stacking up nationwide, the economy, if not already in one, is likely headed into a recession. That doesn’t mean real estate prices will decrease. Given the sheer number of buyers in the market, including the Millennial generation entering homeownership, we will continue to face a housing shortage for years to come. That lack of inventory relative to demand will keep real estate pricing stable, if not growing through 2022 and into 2023.

Rumson

Inventory is still extremely low in Rumson with only 19 homes currently for sale, all over $1.3 million. With 17 currently pending, as of the time we’re writing this, listings are being cleared almost as quickly as they hit the market. Multiple offers on homes in the $3 million and $4 million dollar ranges are still occurring, while a bunch of new construction homes have hit the market recently. The newly built Bingham Park development continues to draw attention from adult-community buyers drawn to the main floor primary bedroom option.

Fair Haven

Similarly to Rumson, inventory in Fair Haven is anemic, with only 5 homes currently for sale and 3 currently pending as of May 1, 2023. This vicious cycle continues to repeat itself as current Fair Haven owners who would like to upgrade to a larger home cannot list their current Fair Haven home for sale with no available options for them to buy. More buyers from Manhattan than ever are eyeing up the Fair Haven market.

Sea Bright

Sea Bright continues to be on fire. Every month the record sales price gets erased only to be replaced by a new one. Waterfront homes are in EXTREME demand with water view also commanding sizable premiums. Buyers from New York looking for beach homes are now competing with a multitude of empty-nesters leaving Western Monmouth County to live near the water. Having cash is almost a requisite to compete in this market with many of these water view and waterfront homes receiving 5-10 offers significantly over asking price, and more than half of those offers ALL CASH.

Forecast

We expect the current rally for sellers to taper off as we head into Fall. So, if you’re thinking about selling and want top dollar and for buyers to fight over your property, act quickly.

If you’re curious what your home is valued at, but aren’t serious about selling, sign up for our HomeBot alerts hereWhat’s My Home Worth

If you’d like us to stop by and provide you a full pricing analysis, set up a meeting here.  Arrange A Meeting With DJ

If you’d like to see what homes are currently for sale in Rumson, Fair Haven, & Sea Bright, click here.  Homes Currently For Sale

 

 

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